Analyzing Taiwan IC assembly industry by grey-Markov forecasting model

Abstract

This study utilizes the black swan theorem to discuss how to face the lack of historical data and outliers. They may cause huge influences which make it impossible for people to predict the economy from their knowledge or experiences. Meanwhile, they cause the general dilemma of which prediction tool to be used which is also considered in this study. For the reason above, this study uses 2009 Q1 to 2010 Q4 quarterly revenue trend of Taiwan's semiconductor packaging and testing industry under the global financial turmoil as basis and the grey prediction method to deal with nonlinear problems and small data. Under the lack of information and economic drastic changes, this study applies Markov model to predict the industry revenues of GM(1,1) and DGM(1,1) results. The results show that the accuracy of 2010 Q1-Q3 is 88.37%, 90.27%, sand 91.13%, respectively. Besides, they are better than the results of GM(1,1) and DGM(1,1) which are 86.51%, 77.35%, 75.46% and 73.77%, 74.25%, 59.72%. The results show that the prediction ability of the grey prediction with Markov model is better than traditional GM(1,1) and DGM(1,1) sfacing the changes of financial crisis. The results also prove that the grey-Markov chain prediction can be the perfect criterion for decision-makers judgment even when the environment has undergone drastic changes which bring the impact of unpredictable conditions. © 2013 Lei-Chuan Lin and Shan-Yau Wu.