Simulation and Prediction of Territorial Spatial Layout at the Lake-Type Basin Scale: A Case Study of the Dongting Lake Basin in China from 2000 to 2050

Abstract

The study of spatial layout in China is changing from land use/land cover to territorial spatial layout and is mostly carried out at the administrative division scale. However, the driving factors affecting the evolution of territorial spatial layout are not all influenced by administrative boundaries. As cities are mostly centered on lakes and water systems, the evolution of territorial spatial layout in lake-type basins must have its own special characteristics. Taking the Dongting Lake Basin (DLB), a representative lake-type basin in China, as an example, this study identifies its territorial spatial layout elements and couples the system dynamics model with the patch-generating land-use simulation model based on multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks. This study identified the best combination of driving factors and research step size affecting the evolution of territorial spatial layout. An improved quantitative spatial coupling model was used to simulate the territorial spatial layout of the DLB from 2000 to 2050 and identify its evolutionary characteristics and trends at both the elemental level and for three types of space. The simulation and prediction of territorial spatial layout from the lake-type basin hydrology scale can provide a reference for the formulation of regional territorial spatial planning policies.