Associations of diabetes, prediabetes and diabetes duration with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A prospective UK Biobank study

Abstract

Aim: To investigate the associations of diabetes, prediabetes and diabetes duration with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk and survival in the UK Biobank. Materials and Methods: We conducted a prospective analysis among 452 680 participants without COPD at baseline using UK Biobank data. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from Cox regression models. The dose–response relationship was explored using restricted cubic splines. A separate survival analysis was conducted for 12 595 patients with incident COPD. Results: Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 12 595 cases of COPD were documented. Compared with the reference group, those with prediabetes and diabetes were associated with an 18% (HR 1.18 [95% CI: 1.13-1.24]) and 35% (HR 1.35 [95% CI: 1.24-1.47]) higher risk of COPD, respectively. Diabetes duration was associated with COPD risk, with multivariable HRs (95% CIs) of 1.23 (1.05-1.44), 1.20 (1.04-1.39) and 1.18 (1.01-1.37) for diabetes duration of 7 years or longer, 3 to less than 7 years, and 1 to less than 3 years versus less than 1 year, respectively. Dose–response analysis revealed a non-linear relationship between diabetes duration and COPD risk. Regarding COPD survival, COPD patients with prediabetes and diabetes had a 9% (HR 1.09 [95% CI: 1.00-1.19]) and 21% (HR 1.21 [95% CI: 1.05-1.41]) higher risk of overall death, respectively. Compared with the cases with a diabetes duration of less than 1 year, those with a diabetes duration of 7 years or longer were associated with a 46% higher risk of overall death (HR 1.46 [95% CI: 1.11-1.92]). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that diabetes, prediabetes and a longer diabetes duration are associated with a higher risk of and worse survival for COPD. Future studies are warranted to determine the optimal way of diabetes control that might reduce COPD risk.