IMPLEMENTASI METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES PADA PERAMALAN HARGA EMAS DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Changes in gold prices in Indonesia continue to occur from time to time with uncertain changes and can be said to be volatile. With the condition of the volatile data on changes in gold prices, predictions are needed that are appropriate or close to the existing data. Chen's fuzzy time series method can be used as a solution to this problem because it has a low error rate. The purpose of this study was to predict the price of gold in Indonesia in the coming period by implementing the Chen fuzzy time series method, these steps can be solved using R software. The data used in this study were daily gold price data in Indonesia for the period January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2022. The results obtained are gold price forecasts for the period July 1, 2022, amounting to Rp. 988,313 and the MAPE value of 0.60515%. The MAPE value indicates that Chen's fuzzy time series method was very well used to forecast Indonesias gold price data.