Seismic Risk Perception Assessment of Earthquake Survivors: A Case Study from the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

Abstract

Following the catastrophic earthquake of October 2005 in Kashmir, Pakistan, 215 surveys were administered to earthquake survivors in villages within 50 miles (80 km) of the epicenter near the town of Muzaffarabad. The survey questionnaires were designed to address perceptions of seismic knowledge, event-related behavior, and opinions of local, regional, and national seismic preparedness and mitigation-representing a rare opportunity in seismic risk assessment. Some of the findings were similar to previous research results, while some were counter-intuitive, surprising, and valuable. Overwhelmingly, respondents stated that they ran away after the quake (vs. praying, taking cover, screaming, or doing nothing). Their trust in local and national governments regarding future earthquake preparedness and mitigation was high (~50%), contrary to most prior studies. Less than five percent of respondents believed that “no quake would occur again”, while nearly 75% responded that another quake would occur within 5 - 10 years, another opinion contrary to previous research. This research revealed new aspects of risk perception in the predominant Muslim communities of Northern Pakistan regarding recurrence, post-event action, and regional preparedness.