Livelihood Vulnerability to Salinity Intrusion in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Abstract

The Mekong Delta constitutes Vietnam's most critical agricultural region and serves as the primary livelihood foundation for millions of inhabitants who rely directly upon land, water, and climate resources. In recent decades, the region has confronted escalating threats from salinity intrusion, driven by climate change, upstream water regulation, and environmental degradation. This study assesses livelihood vulnerability to salinity intrusion in selected Mekong Delta provinces using the IPCC framework, which comprises three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Environmental monitoring datasets and secondary data sources were standardised and integrated through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to calculate the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI-IPCC). Findings reveal substantial spatial differences: Ben Tre, Cà Mau, and Tien Giang exhibit the highest vulnerability levels, primarily due to high exposure and low adaptive capacity. In contrast, provinces such as Vĩnh Long, An Giang, Hau Giang, and Dong Tháp demonstrate lower vulnerability indices, reflecting more favourable natural conditions and stronger local adaptation measures. The results underscore that vulnerability is influenced not only by exposure but also by socioeconomic sensitivity and adaptive capacity. This study offers critical empirical evidence to inform targeted adaptation strategies and guide regional planning efforts addressing escalating salinity intrusion across the Mekong Delta.