Integrating Sustainable Development Goals to Assess Energy Transition Scenarios in Municipalities of Northern Sweden

Abstract

Local governments face significant challenges in implementing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To address these challenges, the study adopts a model-based system analysis approach for integrating sustainable development principles into the local energy transition, examining (i) what to include and vary across scenarios, (ii) what to extract from the model results, and (iii) what to discuss with the local governments. An energy system optimisation model, based on the TIMES modelling framework, is employed to represent the municipal energy system of Gällivare in northern Sweden and its potential transition pathways. The study also provides a comparative data-driven assessment to examine whether the energy transition pathways converge or diverge from the SDGs. In addition, a set of sustainability indicators has been identified/developed and are implemented in the model to assess sustainability across different pathways. The challenge inherent in such quantitative comparisons, particularly those of a complex nature such as sustainability, lies in selecting appropriate indicators for municipalities that align with the model’s framework. The analysis shows both convergent and divergent pathways. For instance, electrification in the identified transition pathways reduces fossil fuel use (converges towards SDG13 on climate), but electrification also introduces complexities with increased material usage for electric vehicles (diverges from SDG12 on responsible consumption and production).