Atmospheric Cascades Shape Wildfire Activity and Fire Management Decision Spaces Across Scales − A Conceptual Framework for Fire Prediction

Abstract

This study uses an interdisciplinary approach to investigate variability in fire weather, fire activity and fire management decision spaces in western Canada from three separate perspectives. We used time series analysis to identify periodic and quasi-periodic components of fire weather measures at second, hourly, daily, yearly, and multi-decadal resolution in 3 ecozones. Examples of relationships between scales of fire weather and fire activity were taken from the literature. Through interviews with and observation of Canadian wildland fire management agencies we identified 20 typical decision problems which we mapped to 16 spatio-temporally cohesive decision spaces extending from incident to national levels and immediate to multi-decadal time spans. To connect these domains, we propose that space time cascades of atmospheric kinetic energy are reflected in an inverse cascade of wildfire activity, and shape the spatio-temporal dimensions of decision spaces and the pace of fire management decisions.