Modelos matemáticos empíricos para descrever o comportamento do fogo em plantações comerciais de eucalipto no Brasil

Abstract

Modeling forest fire behavior is an important task that can be used to assist in fire prevention and suppression operations. However, according to previous studies, the existing common worldwide fire behavior models used do not correctly estimate the fire behavior in Brazilian commercial hybrid eucalypt plantations. Therefore, this study aims to build new empirical models to predict the fire rate of spread, flame length and fuel consumption for such vegetation. To meet these objectives, 105 laboratory experimental burns were done, where the main fuel characteristics and weather variables that influence fire behavior were controlled and/or measured in each experiment. Dependent and independent variables were fitted through multiple regression analysis. The fire rate of spread proposed model is based on the wind speed, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead fuel moisture content (r2 = 0.86); the flame length model is based on the fuel bed depth, 1-h dead fuel moisture content and wind speed (r2 = 0.72); the fuel consumption proposed model has the 1-h dead fuel moisture, fuel bed bulk density and 1-h dead dry fuel load as independent variables (r2= 0.80). These models were used to develop a new fire behavior software, the “Eucalyptus Fire Safety System”.