A flood-crest forecast prototype for river floods using only in-stream measurements

Abstract

Streamflow forecasting generally relies on coupled rainfall-runoff-routing models calibrated and executed with data estimated by monitoring protocols that do not fully capture the dynamics of unsteady flows. This limits the ability to accurately forecast flood crests and issue hazard warnings. Here we utilize directly measured datasets acquired for streamflow estimation to develop a data-driven forecasting algorithm that does not require conventional physically-based modeling. We test the potential of our algorithm using measurements acquired at an index-velocity gaging station on the Illinois River, USA, between 2014 and 2019. We find that the forecasting protocol is able to deliver short-term predictions of flood crest magnitude and arrival time. The algorithm produces better agreement with larger events and is more reliable for single-peak storms possibly due to the prominence of hysteretic behavior in such events. We conclude that flood hazard can be forecast using directly measured index-velocity and stage alone.