Stratospheric forcing needed for dynamical seasonal prediction

Abstract

While tropical sea surface temperatures certainly influence the atmosphere; winter circulation, temperature, and precipitation over Northen Hemisphere continents are also influenced by circulation patterns related to the stratosphere. In particular, large tropical volcanic eruptions produce winter warming patterns over Northern Hemisphere continents because of a dynamical effect forced by gradients of radiative heating from sulfate aerosols in the lower stratosphere. These effects must be included for accurate dynamical seasonal predictions of Northern Hemisphere winter temperature over both North America and Eurasia.