No significant difference—Unless you are a jumper

Abstract

Much of the e-education literature suggests that no significant difference exists in aggregate student learning outcomes between online and face-to-face instruction. In this study, an empirical model is developed to forecast the grade that individual students would have most likely earned in the alternate class setting. Students for whom the difference between the actual grade received in one class format (for example, online) and the forecasted grade in the other class setting (for example, face-to-face) is one full letter grade or higher are called “jumpers.” The findings reported in this study indicate that while about half of the students in the sample would have received essentially the same grade in either setting, as many as 42 percent are jumpers (meaning a positive or negative potential change of at least one full letter grade). This discovery has important implications for student choice and advisement in universities where students are free to choose between taking a particular course either online or face-to-face.