Conservation outcomes of dietary transitions across different values of nature

Abstract

Conservation benefits from dietary change are commonly assessed without accounting for different conservation objectives. By representing fine-scale habitat and landscape change within a dynamic land-system model, we assess how a partial or full transition to healthier diets would affect indicators across the ‘Nature for Nature’ and ‘Nature for Society’ conservation value perspectives. We find that most diet-related conservation benefits are already achieved by a partial shift to healthier diets. This is because, particularly in many countries in tropical Africa and Asia, adopting healthier diets would mainly involve substituting staple foods with more varied plant-based foods rather than replacing resource-intensive livestock products. Conservation action in line with the Global Biodiversity Framework, by contrast, most consistently improves outcomes across both value perspectives, even under current demand trends, showing that spatial planning is central for decoupling conservation outcomes from food demand. However, any progress towards healthier diets not only lowers greenhouse gas emissions but also reduces barriers to effective conservation, such as higher food prices and imports.