THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR AND THE EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE OF THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

Abstract

The article analyzes the course of the Russia-Ukraine war of 2022, possible options for its development in the near future, and makes a prediction on the alleged defeat of Russia in the war and the future of Russia. The perspective of Georgia’s territorial integration and its place in the future of Europe’s contours and in the Euro-Atlantic structure is studied, emphasizing the connection of Georgia’s foreign policy success with the great geopolitical changes in the world. In fact, we are dealing with one of the largest military confrontations since World War II, involving up to 400,000 troops from both sides. Great casualties and losses on both sides. Both Ukrainian and especially Russian statistics are biased in this regard. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 40 days after the start of the war, more than 18 thousand Russian soldiers (soldiers, officers, 9 generals), more than 640 tanks, 1750 armored vehicles, more than 300 artillery pieces, up to 100 rocket launchers, 55 anti-aircraft guns were destroyed. More than 1,200 vehicles and tanks, more than 135 planes, up to 150 helicopters, and up to 60 unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down, seven Russian ships and boats were sunk, and so on. The war is still going on and may take on a protracted character. The article considers three situations that may develop depending on the course of the war: the first is Russia’s military failure and economic collapse; the second option is for Russia to be able to gain a military victory over Ukraine and annex the Luhansk-Donetsk and Crimean territories to Mariupol and its surrounding areas and cut off access to them; the third option is for Russia to force the US-EU through nuclear blackmail to suspend aid to Ukraine. Everything is decided by the military, financial and human resources. The first stage of the war, ideologically and partly militarily, was won by Ukraine, which has been able to defend all major cities to date and thwarted Russia’s original plans for a quick victory and full subjugation of Ukraine. The authors indicate that the fate of Georgia is decided as well because if we look at the history of Georgia, its foreign policy and cultural successes were largely related to world geopolitical changes.