Avian predator-prey dynamics in a changing climate along the Western Antarctic Peninsula: A scoping review

Abstract

A unique characteristic of the food web along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of the fastest-warming regions globally, is that avian tertiary predators seasonally rely on avian secondary predators for their subsistence. We conducted a review to 1.) summarize research on Antarctic avian predator-prey relationships, 2.) investigate avian predator-prey relationships and trends with the environment, and 3.) highlight research gaps and provide recommendations for future research. We searched the Web of Science and Google Scholar for publications in English during any year. For our first aim, we used the terms “predator-prey dynamics” AND “Antarctica.” We kept only results that included both avian predators and prey, which resulted in seven Southern Ocean publications and one on the WAP. For our second aim, we searched using each species’ common and scientific names (gentoo penguin, Pygoscelis papua, Adélie penguin, P. adeliae, chinstrap penguin, P. antarcticus, southern giant petrel, Macronectes giganteus, south polar skua, Stercorarius maccormicki, brown skua, S. antarcticus) AND “population” AND “Antarctic Peninsula.” We refined our results (N = 59) to publications with data on at least one prey and one predator species of all papers on Web of Science, and the first 100 on Google Scholar. We selected five locations that had data spanning over 10 years from the northern WAP. Further, we compared predator-prey species temporal trends with sea surface and air temperature. We found that relationships between avian secondary and tertiary predators have had limited investigations in Antarctica. Along the WAP, the relationship between different penguin species and avian tertiary predators are highly variable and many population trends are decoupled from local temperature change. We recommend that in addition to continued and expanded data collection, more complex analyses are required and these dynamics should be incorporated into food web and ecosystem modelling to better inform current trends and future projections.