Case-based reasoning method in cost estimation of drilling wells

Abstract

Aim of study is the cost estimation of drilling wells using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) method which is created based on the viewpoint of using presented solutions for previous solved problems in order to solve new similar problems. In companies or organizations which cost estimation, scheduling, design, planning and project activities sequences and etc., are considered as an iterative activity, project managers naturally use previous experiences in order to estimate the instances mentioned above in new similar case. Thus, offering a comprehensive approach which can support this natural behavior, will significantly contribute to the appropriate decision making. CBR method could be an appropriate tool for decision making in this area. The major findings of this study is that, in the proposed CBR model despite limited data, the error of method according to the performance indicators was very low. Therefore, obtained estimation accuracy of the proposed CBR model is high and the model is useful. On the other hand, given that the available estimation methods spend much time to estimate cost, we could save time using the CBR method and hence the speed of drilling which is very important is increased. © Maxwell Scientific Organization, 2013.