Spatially varying plankton synchrony patterns at seasonal and interannual scales in a well-connected shelf sea

Abstract

Spatial population synchrony, defined as spatial covariation in population density fluctuations, exists across different temporal and spatial scales. Determining the degree of spatial synchrony is useful for inferring environmental drivers of population variability in the wake of climate change. In this study, we applied novel statistical methods to detect spatial synchrony patterns of Calanus finmarchicus on the Northeast U.S. Shelf at multiple spatiotemporal scales using unevenly distributed data. Our results reveal that C. finmarchicus subpopulations connected by advection are not necessarily in synchrony, indicating that the degree of synchrony is likely influenced by heterogeneity of local habitats. In addition, regionally synchronous environmental conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) may not play as significant a role in influencing subregional population dynamics as was previously hypothesized. Overlooking the spatial heterogeneity of synchronous patterns at different time scales could lead to erroneous inferences of potential environmental drivers responsible for C. finmarchicus variability.