Crisis communication in megathrust discourse: Risk preparedness or fear amplification?

Abstract

This research examines how crisis communication influences public responses to the risk of megathrust earthquakes, particularly whether digital discourse fosters preparedness or amplifies fear. More specifically, this research looks at how public engagement, risk awareness, and perceived constraints shape behavioural outcomes in disaster contexts, such as a megathrust earthquake, using the Situational Theory of Publics (Grunig, 1997) and Risk Perception Theory (Slovic, 1987). To address these dynamics, a mixed-methods approach was applied: computational text mining and qualitative interviews. To contextualise the digital discourse, semi-structured interviews were conducted with institutional actors (BMKG, BNPB), disaster communication specialists, and community-based organisations. Using Voyant Tools, incorporating Brown and Yule’s (1983) framework to identify thematic patterns through word frequency and co-occurrence analysis, the findings reveal that the corpus consisted of 1,253,214 words, 61,885 unique word forms as well as dominant terms such as “megathrust” (64,160), “gempa” (33,146), and “potensi” (6,553). This also indicates heightened public concern and awareness as well as that public preparedness is strongly influenced by risk perception and involvement. However, high levels of constraint recognition—manifested as distrust in institutions or uncertainty about appropriate actions—diminish proactive responses. While BMKG and BNPB were frequently mentioned, the clear message was lack of clarity, emotional resonance, and educational value. This research underscores the need to formalise empathetic, two-way crisis communication protocols through national SOPs. In summary, integrating adaptive messaging, real-time sentiment monitoring, and inclusive engagement strategies is vital for transforming awareness into preparedness and mitigating fear-driven reactions.