Prediction of Current and Future Suitable Habitats for Three Invasive Freshwater Fish Species in Europe

Abstract

Climate change can have a significant impact on the Earth’s ecosystems. Invasive species will respond to climate change, and their responses will have ecological and economic implications. Habitat suitability models (HSMs) are some of the most important tools currently available for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on species. The projections of a model of suitable conditions for three invasive fish species in Europe, Lepomis gibbosus, Perccottus glenii and Pseudorasbora parva, built using Maxent and based on the occurrence throughout the range (native and invasive), on the current climate of Europe and on the forecast climate data for the 2050s and 2070s in the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios are presented herein. For Lepomis gibbosus and Pseudorasbora parva, climate change will lead to a significant expansion of their zones, with suitable conditions to the north and east, while the change in suitability in their existing ranges will be moderate. For Perccottus glenii, the zone with suitable conditions will shift northward, with a gradual deterioration in the southern and central parts of its current range and an improvement in the northern part. Thus, at present and until the 2070s, Lepomis gibbosus and Pseudorasbora parva can be considered potentially dangerous invasive species in most parts of Europe, while Perccottus glenii can be considered as such only in the northern part of Europe.