Temporal evolution of homicide mortality in Brazilian capitals from 2005 to 2019

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to improve our understanding of violence, focusing on the analysis of the relation between socioeconomic factors and homicide rates from 2005 to 2019 in Brazilian capitals. Design/methodology/approach: Multilevel Poisson models were used to estimate the homicide risk in men and women. The response variable was the homicide rate. Fixed effects were estimated for age group, year and gross domestic product (GDP). Findings: The average homicide rate over the 2005–2019 period was 5.83/100,000 and 83.72/100,000 for women and men, respectively. In both sexes, the homicide rates increased over the period. The highest mortality rates were observed in North and Northeastern capitals. The peak homicide rates were 2010–2014, the risk of homicide decreased as age increased, and the capitals with GDP lower than US$5,000 showed a greater homicide rate. Originality/value: Brazil remains among the countries with the highest risk of homicide, especially in the north and northeast regions, where socioeconomic conditions are more unfavorable. The improvement of socioeconomic conditions may contribute to changing this situation.