Prevalence and predictors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among high-risk Egyptians

Abstract

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the fourth most common cause of death in the world. COPD prevalence, morbidity, and mortality vary across countries and across different groups within countries. In Egypt, COPD is a rising significant health problem; however, information on its prevalence, morbidity, and mortality is still lacking. Aim of the study: The first aim was to detect the prevalence of COPD among high-risk Egyptians Global using Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) and FEV1/FVC < LLN were 94.3 and 90.8%, respectively, for the diagnosis of COPD. However, our findings support that the postbronchodilator LLN definition is superior in ruling out the presence of COPD, as it has a good negative test specificity of 99.7%. Chest wheezes were the only symptom that was an independent predictor of COPD (odds ratio 4.80, 95% confidence interval 1.57–14.74, P = 0.02). Increasing age, smoking, and mean pack-years were also factors predictive for COPD. Conclusion: The prevalence of COPD among high-risk individuals in Egypt was estimated to be about 10% as per GOLD. Prebronchodilator LLN is a reliable method for the diagnosis of COPD and it yields comparable results to the GOLD criteria. The main predictors for COPD diagnosis are old age, smoking history, and presence of chest wheezes.