Climate change scenario projections and their implications on food systems in Taita Taveta County, Kenya

Abstract

This study explored how Taita Taveta County could use the power of climate scenarios in planning agricultural activities on food systems to enhance sustainable food. The study involved the use of climate scenarios to model the past, present and future climate with the view of predicting probable changes in climate and how these changes may impact on food production, transformation and utilization and the ultimate handling of ensuing food wastes to mitigate the looming climate change scenarios. The research was conducted in Taita Taveta County that is characterized into three agro-ecological zones based on altitude and an ensemble of the top two models (ICHEC-EC-EARTH and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) was used to analyse climate projections following RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. Rainfall and temperature from the Kenya Meteorological Department and supplemented with datasets from Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO), Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) respectively for the period 1981–2021 were used. The results exhibited occurrences of climate variability and change, and the seasons when the rainfall amounts were highest and lowest. Projected temperatures up to 2065 revealed likelihood of significant future warming and predicted future rainfall variations indicated insignificant increase. The study concluded by predicting a significant rise in temperatures and insignificant increase in rainfall leading to probable decrease in food production. The study recommended adoption climate smart technologies and early warning systems by the communities and policy makers to mainstream climate information in food systems, particularly production, transformation and utilization to enhance efficiency and avoid unnecessary wastage. State and non-state actors and other stakeholders could leverage these results to devise suitable adaptation and mitigation measures in the county.