Competition, stakes, and falling electoral participation in Central Asia and the Caucasus: A comparative analysis

Abstract

Between 2005 and 2015, a drastic wave of decline in voter turnout affected a series of presidential elections in Central Asia and the Caucasus. To explain this phenomenon, we perform an innovative comparative study using news coverage of four electoral case studies in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, and Armenia. This analysis is then used to build a new theory, which explains significant falls in participation as outcomes of a composite process of strengthening of incumbent regimes, weakening of oppositions, and generally reduced electoral stakes. Common patterns are identified across all four cases, suggesting that the willingness of the people to refuse to turn out to vote appears largely independent of the level of democracy. We maintain that, across the region, citizens chose to spurn the ballot box because of reduced electoral competition.