Bass model analysis in “crossing the chasm” in e-cars innovation diffusion scenarios

Abstract

In the face of contemporary ecological problems, including the influence of transport and mobility on the greenhouse effect, policy makers see a solution in the technology of electric vehicles (EVs). This innovation has appeared in the automotive market around the world. In this article, Rogers’ innovation diffusion concept was used to determine if and when EVs could replace combustion engine vehicles. The aim of the article is to analyze the current situation of innovative electric vehicle (EV) technology on the European Union (EU) market and the potential and possible directions of its market diffusion. As a result of the analysis of the current situation of the EU automotive markets, three groups of countries with different market conditions regarding the development of EV technology were distinguished. The classification was carried out using the K-means clustering algorithm, based on the current level of innovation and the level of development of the LPG-(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) powered car market. Then, a group of countries with the greatest advancement in EV technology was selected for further research and market diffusion scenarios were created for this innovation using the Bass model, assuming the target market size of 70–100% of all passenger cars.