Policy leadership and re-election in the European Parliament

Abstract

What determines the re-election of incumbent members of the European Parliament (MEPs)? Using Heckman probit models with sample selection to predict re-election in 2014, this contribution considers the impact of policy leadership, formal leadership, professional dedication, and seniority, and investigates the conditional effect of ballot structures. It finds that formal leadership only has a positive effect for party leaders elected from open lists, while dedication and seniority do not impact incumbents’ electoral performance. Instead, policy leadership is most clearly associated with incumbents’ electoral fortunes, including an innovative new measure of MEPs’ ability to influence the votes of others. The results also suggest that party leaders, when creating electoral lists that are not subject to change by voters, seek to ensure that policy leaders are reelected, but that voters, when given the opportunity to change the rankings of candidates on electoral lists, favor MEPs with greater electoral visibility instead.