Geographical variation in a quantitative character

Abstract

A model for the evolution of the local averages of a quantitative character under migration, selection, and random genetic drift in a subdivided population is formulated and investigated. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping; the monoecious, diploid population mates at random in each deme. All three evolutionary forces are weak, but the migration pattern and the local population numbers are otherwise arbitrary. The character is determined by purely additive gene action and a stochastically independent environment; its distribution is Gaussian with a constant variance; and it is under Gaussian stabilizing selection with the same parameters in every deme. Linkage disequilibrium is neglected. Most of the results concern the covariances of the local averages. For a finite number of demes, explicit formulas are derived for (i) the asymptotic rate and pattern of convergence to equilibrium, (ii) the variance of a suitably weighted average of the local averages, and (iii) the equilibrium covariances when selection and random drift are much weaker than migration. Essentially complete analyses of equilibrium and convergence are presented for random outbreeding and site homing, the Levene and island models, the circular habitat and the unbounded linear stepping-stone model in the diffusion approximation, and the exact unbounded stepping-stone model in one and two dimensions.