Stochastic differential equation modeling of time-series mining induced ground subsidence

Abstract

Mining-induced ground subsidence is a commonly observed geo-hazard that leads to loss of life, property damage, and economic disruption. Monitoring subsidence over time is essential for predicting related geo-risks and mitigating future disasters. Machine-learning algorithms have been applied to develop predictive models to quantify future ground subsidence. However, machine-learning approaches are often difficult to interpret and reproduce, as they are largely used as “black-box” functions. In contrast, stochastic differential equations offer a more reliable and interpretable solution to this problem. In this study, we propose a stochastic differential equation modeling approach to predict short-term subsidence in the temporal domain. Mining-induced time-series data collected from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) in our case study area were utilized to conduct the analysis. Here, the mining-induced time-series data collected from GNSS system regarding our case study area in Miyi County, Sichuan Province, China between June 2019 and February 2022 has been utilized to conduct the case study. The proposed approach is capable of extracting the time-dependent structure of monitored subsidence data and deriving short-term subsidence forecasts. The predictive outcome and time-path trajectories were obtained by characterizing the parameters within the stochastic differential equations. Comparative analysis against the persistent model, autoregressive model, and other improved autoregressive time-series models is conducted in this study. The computational results validate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed approach.