Modelling Future Pathways for Industrial Process Heat Decarbonisation in New Zealand: The Role of Green Hydrogen

Abstract

Green hydrogen is a potential enabler of deep decarbonisation for industrial process heat. We assess its role in Aotearoa New Zealand using a bottom-up, least-cost energy-system model based on the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES), which includes hydrogen production electrolysis, storage, and delivery of end-use technologies for process heat, as well as alternative low-carbon options. Drawing on detailed data on industrial energy use by sector and temperature band, we simulate pathways to 2050 under varying assumptions for electrolyser and fuel prices, technology efficiencies, electricity decarbonisation and carbon prices. In most scenarios, the least-cost pathway involves widespread electrification of low- and medium-temperature heat, with green hydrogen playing a targeted role where high-temperature requirements and process constraints limit direct electrification. Sensitivity analysis reveals that hydrogen uptake increases under higher carbon prices, lower electrolyser capital expenditure, and when grid connection or peak capacity constraints are binding. These results suggest that policy should prioritise rapid industrial electrification while focusing hydrogen support on hard-to-electrify, high-temperature processes, such as primary metals and mineral products, alongside enabling infrastructure and standards for hydrogen production, transport, and storage.