Trade liberalization and total factor productivity in Brazil: A vecm modeling

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate trade openness’s effects on total factor productivity (TFP) using monthly data from December 1991 to March 2024. The analysis also incorporated absorptive capacity to examine the behavior of TFP components. Our findings from a multivariate VECM model indicated that absorptive capacity did not significantly impact TFP, even in the short term. Conversely, the increase in openness contributes to raising TFP by about 26 and 0.16 percentage points in the short and long term, respectively. Additionally, absorptive capacity and trade openness Granger-Cause short- and long-term components of TFP. These results are statistically significant at conventional significance levels. Policymakers should consider the dynamic effects of their policy actions on other sectors of the economy that were not initially the focus of the policy. Policymakers should develop concrete policies that improve the efficient use of resources in production chains to potentialize the productive impact of trade liberalization, including investment in human capital, ICT, and research and development.