Machine-Learning Insights from the Framingham Heart Study: Enhancing Cardiovascular Risk Prediction and Monitoring

Abstract

Monitoring cardiovascular health enables continuous and real-time risk assessment. This study utilized the Framingham Heart Study dataset to develop and evaluate machine-learning models for predicting mortality risk based on key cardiovascular parameters. Some machine-learning algorithms were applied to multiple machine-learning models. Among these, XGBoost achieved the highest predictive performance, each with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.83. Feature importance analysis revealed that coronary artery disease, glucose levels, and diastolic blood pressure (DIABP) were the most significant risk factors associated with mortality. The primary contribution of this research lies in its implications for public health and preventive medicine. By identifying key risk factors, it becomes possible to calculate individual and population-level risk scores and to design targeted early intervention strategies aimed at reducing cardiovascular-related mortality.