The regional (re)allocation of migrants during the Great Lockdown in Italy

Abstract

This paper presents first-hand evidence of the impact of Covid-19 on the re-allocation of migrants. I use monthly data on the migrants in reception centres and on daily arrivals in Italy during the period from October 2017 to October 2020, combined with information on Covid-19 cases across Italian regions. I employ a difference-in-differences design, finding that the presence of migrants decreased approximately 7% points more in regions highly exposed to the pandemic as compared to those less affected by Covid-19. In practice, migrants in second-line reception centres are reduced by approximately 381 units when considering a region less affected by the pandemic, and by around 2150 units in regions severely hit by the Covid-19 outbreak. Finally, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that in more affected regions, such an unusual reallocation of migrants implies potential savings in the range of 60–94 million euros, corresponding to about a 30–90% reduction in spending on migrant, refugee, and asylum seekers in these regions, whereas the reduction is of roughly 3–6% in less exposed areas.