Uncertainty quantification of flood damage estimation for urban drainage risk management

Abstract

This paper presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty associated with inundation damage data for an urban catchment when undertaking stormwater drainage design and management. Usually flood damage is estimated by multiplying the inundated asset value by the damage rate corresponding to the inundation depth. The uncertainty of the asset value and the damage rate is described by probability distributions estimated from an analysis of actual flood damage data from a national government survey. With the inclusion of uncertainty in the damage rate and asset value, the damage potential curve defining the damage-frequency relationship is no longer a deterministic single-value curve. Through Monte Carlo simulations, which incorporate the uncertainty of the inundation damage from the damage rate and asset value, a probabilistic damage potential relation can be established, which can be expressed in terms of a series of curves with different percentile levels. The method is demonstrated through the establishment of probabilistic damage potential curves for a typical urban catchment, the Zenpukuji river basin in Tokyo Metropolis, under two scenarios, namely, with and without a planned flood control reservoir.