How do we know if an intelligence analytic product is good?

Abstract

How can an intelligence analysis production organization determine whether analysis is successful? This article explores the three methods that intelligence communities have applied to determine whether analysis is good: Did the analysis meet analytic tradecraft standards? Were the assessments accurate? And did the product make a difference with a decision maker? Unfortunately, none of those evaluation methods is perfect and all three leave questions. It can be just as difficult to determine whether analysis is good as it is to produce intelligence analysis itself. However, all three methods can identify products that approach the ideal.