Trends of academic mobility in russia: Statistical analysis and forecasting

Abstract

Introduction. Currently, the competitiveness of universities is determined by their level of internationalization, which cannot be imagined without academic mobility. This is reflected in world university rankings. Russian universities do not occupy leading positions in these ratings; they are losing their role in the global educational space. Today, it is necessary to make prompt, constructive decisions that contribute to the growth of academic mobility, however, the development of measures in this area is not possible without prospective estimates of indicators characterizing both the development of the internationalization of higher education and growth quality of education. In this regard, the purpose of the presented article is to build predictive scenarios for academic mobility in Russia. Materials and Methods. The research employs statistical methods of time series analysis and forecasting. Prospective values of the number of foreign citizens from various countries studying at Russian universities were obtained on the basis of exponential functions and adaptive forecasting methods. The choice of the model with the best forecast values is based on a formal-logical analysis coupled with a comparison of the main characteristics of accuracy and quality. Results. The article presents predictive scenarios of academic mobility in Russia: Regressive, conservative, moderately optimistic. The obtained forecast results determine the possibilities of increasing the competitiveness of Russian education and improving the position of Russian universities in the world rankings only if high-quality digital education is formed and developed on the basis of an infrastructure that ensures high technical reliability. Discussion and Conclusion. The proposed methodology and assessments of the prospective values of the targets for the growth of university academic mobility not only substantiate the expansion of the possibilities of using adaptive forecasting methods, which determines the scientific contribution of the study conducted by the authors, but can also be taken into account when adjusting/updating the planned values of indicators introduced into state initiatives to stimulate internationalization of Russian higher education, which points to the high practical importance of this article.