Safe reopening of university campuses is possible with COVID-19 vaccination

Abstract

We construct an agent-based SEIR model to simulate COVID-19 spread at a 16000-student mostly non-residential urban university during the Fall 2021 Semester. We find that mRNA vaccine coverage at 100% combined with weekly screening testing of 25% of the campus population make it possible to safely reopen to in-person instruction. Our simulations exhibit a right-skew for total infections over the semester that becomes more pronounced with less vaccine coverage, less vaccine effectiveness and no additional preventative measures. This suggests that high levels of infection are not exceedingly rare with campus social connections the main transmission route. Finally, we find that if vaccine coverage is 100% and vaccine effectiveness is above 80%, then a safe reopening is possible even without facemask use. This models possible future scenarios with high coverage of additional “booster” doses of COVID-19 vaccines.