Prediction experiments of Hurricane Gloria (1985) using a multiply nested movable mesh model

Abstract

The model's predicted track of Gloria for each integration was compared against the best track determined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). For the case starting from 0000 UTC 25 September using a forecasted boundary condition, the model successfully forecasted significant acceleration of the storm's movement after 48 h. The 72 h forecast error was about 191 km, compared to 480 km for the official track forecast made by the NHC. To examine the model's skill in simulating the storm structure, distribution of the low level maximum wind and total storm rainfall during passage of the model storm are shown and compared with observed values. The model successfully reproduced many observed features such as the occurrence of strong winds well east of the storm center, with an abrupt decrease of the wind field along the coastline. -from Authors