The Spatial Evolution of Geoeconomic Pattern among China and Neighboring Countries since the Reform and Opening-Up

Abstract

The rise of China has had a profound impact on the world and regional political and economic pattern since the reform and opening-up. This paper studies the impact of China’s development on the evolution of the surrounding geo-pattern from the perspective of geoeconomics. Based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of asymmetric interdependence, trade and investment indicators are selected to construct a quantitative model to measure the relative economic dependence between China and neighboring countries. This paper analyzes the degree, types and trends of relative economic dependence and the relationship between economic interdependence and political relations, and investigates the surrounding geoeconomic cooperation. The results are shown as follows: (1) Since 2010, all neighboring countries have had relative economic dependence on China. China’s geoeconomic position in the surrounding area has radically transformed. (2) Since the reform and opening-up, the relative economic dependence of neighboring countries on China has been rising, from negative to positive and from low to high. After 2003, the types of relative economic dependence have gradually shifted from dual low and trade-compensative dependence to dual high and trade-oriented dependence. (3) Trade was the dominant factor in the relative economic dependence of most neighboring countries on China, and it was also the main factor contributing to China’s economic advantages over great powers in the neighborhood. The majority of neighboring countries’ investment dependence on China increased faster than their trade dependence, and the growth of their relative economic dependence will gradually turn to investment in the future. (4) The improvement of political relations between China and neighboring countries provides a foundation for the development of economic relations, and economic relations have the “inertia” of resisting political risks. The deepening of economic ties is conducive to friendly and stable political relations. (5) China’s peripheral geoeconomic strategy focuses on cooperation rather than competition. One of the goals of geoeconomics is the pursuit of joint economic benefits.