Problem and models of multicriteria decision making and risk assessment of the arctic offshore oil and gas field development

Abstract

The article is devoted to the systematic solution of problems of multi-criteria assessment and the possibility of implementing projects for the development of hydrocarbon deposits on the Arctic shelf under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Risks are considered in a narrow and broad sense. It is shown that the solution of tasks, in this case, comes down: 1) to a multi-criteria assessment of the quality level of a field based on a hierarchy analysis method that takes into account uncertainties and risks of operating objects through the relevant necessary indicators (criteria); 2) determining, with the help of game theory adopted with the nature of the criteria for selecting the best Bayesian strategies, of development options under both partial and full uncertainty conditions; 3) selection using the rules of the Borda, Pareto and multi-criteria dispersive risk model for choosing the best development strategy.