Mathematical model of dengue transmission based on daily data in Bandung

Abstract

Dengue is one of the public health issues which is often reported in Bandung. Transmission of the virus is influenced by many factors such as climate which is affecting the life cycle of mosquitoes and human mobility as the virus carriers. An infected individual can die if not treated properly. Here, we study the dengue transmission based on daily data from a reputable hospital (Santo Borromeus) in Bandung. The data was collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2016. We used SIR-SI model to simulate the interaction between human and mosquitoes. The unobserved parameters and initial conditions in the model are estimated by using a nonlinear least squares method. Furthermore, the stochastic model is presented to cover the effect of uncertainties on dengue transmission. In the final part, we presented the simulation of the deterministic and stochastic model compared to reported data. The Stochastic model looks better in capturing dengue data.