Mutual information input selector and probabilistic machine learning utilisation for air pollution proxies

Abstract

An air pollutant proxy is a mathematical model that estimates an unobserved air pollutant using other measured variables. The proxy is advantageous to fill missing data in a research campaign or to substitute a real measurement for minimising the cost as well as the operators involved (i.e., virtual sensor). In this paper, we present a generic concept of pollutant proxy development based on an optimised data-driven approach. We propose a mutual information concept to determine the interdependence of different variables and thus select the most correlated inputs. The most relevant variables are selected to be the best proxy inputs, where several metrics and data loss are also involved for guidance. The input selection method determines the used data for training pollutant proxies based on a probabilistic machine learning method. In particular, we use a Bayesian neural network that naturally prevents overfitting and provides confidence intervals around its output prediction. In this way, the prediction uncertainty could be assessed and evaluated. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we test it on an extensive air pollution database to estimate ozone concentration.