Projected workload for a vascular service in 2020

Abstract

Objective: to estimate the workload of a vascular service during the next two decades as the proportion of people aged over 65 years increases. Methods: the study used the vascular registry data of Tampere University Hospital and the population data of Pirkanmaa region provided by the Central Statistical Office in Finland. The current workload is 1420 vascular procedures per million inhabitants yearly (951 surgical and 207 endovascular). Sixty-five per cent of all procedures are done on people over 65 years old. Pirkanmaa has a population of 440,000 persons of whom 15.6% are over 65 years. According to the population data the population will increase to 460,000 persons by the year 2020 and 22.9% of them will be over 65 years old. Results: the total amount of procedures will rise by 40.5% (1906) and the increase in endovascular and surgical group will be 39.2% (640) and 43.5% (1265) respectively. The proportion of treated patients over 65 years will rise from 65.0% to 70.5%. In the next two decades the amount of patients with claudication will increase by 35.4%, critical limb ischaemia by 44.2%, carotid surgery by 34.0%, abdominal aortic aneurysms by 40.7%, acute limb ischaemia by 45.0% and access surgery by 27.4%. Conclusion: in the next two decades the number of elderly people will increase so vapidly that, whatever happens to the incidence and prevalence of peripheral vascular disease, the workload for a vascular service will increase significantly.