A Global Assessment of Heatwaves Since 1850 in Different Observational and Model Data Sets

Abstract

We show that ModE-Sim, a global ensemble of atmospheric model simulations that uses observed ocean boundary conditions and radiative forcings providing 36 members with daily climate information can be used to in-depth analyze the known spatial and temporal variability of heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere and Australia during the past 160 years. It can also be used to study actual past extreme events like heatwaves during the El Nino 1877/1878. To analyze past heatwaves we use a novel approach of a transient baseline climatology and compare to different observational data sets. Furthermore, we analyze sea surface temperature anomalies during the most extreme heatwave summers in North America, Europe and Australia and identify the most prominent anomaly patterns over the Subpolar North Atlantic and in the Central Pacific. Using a large ensemble of forced simulations, like ModE-Sim can consequently contribute to a better understanding of preindustrial heatwaves, their decadal variability and their driving mechanisms.