Seismic hazard assessment of Turkey by statistical approaches

Abstract

In this study, 2 probabilistic methods are presented for seismic hazard assessment in Turkey: Markov chains based on modeling the transition probabilities of states (related to the presence or absence of the earthquakes having magnitude M ≥ 4 during the time interval Δt = 0.07 years in each region of Turkey located between 36°N and 42°N and 26°E and 45°E), and the Poisson model, used for computing occurrence probability and recurrence periods of earthquakes. In particular, it should be stated that in this study, our purpose is not to compare the results obtained from these 2 methods. The main purpose is to show that earthquakes occurring in Turkey can be modeled successfully by both a Markov chain, in which we have a different zoning, and the Poisson model, which can determine seismic hazard. © TÜBİTAK.