Application of Chaos Theory in Trucks' Overloading Enforcement

Abstract

Trucks' overloading is considered as one of the most substantial concerns in road transport due to a possible road surface damage, as well as, are less reliable performance of trucks' braking system. Sufficient human resource and adequate time scheduling are to be planned for surveying trucks' overloading; hence, it seems required to prepare an all-around model to be able to predict the number of overloaded vehicles. In the present research work, the concept of chaos theory has been utilized to predict the ratio of trucks which might be guessed overloaded. The largest Lyapunov exponent is utilized to determine the presence of chaos using experimental data and concluded that the ratio of overloaded trucks reflects chaotic behavior. The prediction based on chaos theory is compared with the results of simple smoothing and moving average methods according to the well-known criterion of mean square errors. The results have also revealed that the chaotic prediction model would act more capably comparing the analogous methods including simple smoothing and moving average to predict the ratio of passing trucks to be possibly overloaded.