Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Its Linkages to Adaptation Strategies and Farm Resilience in Rice Farming Systems

Abstract

Rice farming systems in swamp lowland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change due to their dependence on hydrological conditions and limited adaptive resources. This study aims to examine the interaction between vulnerability, adaptation strategies, and farmer resilience to strengthen the sustainability of swamp-based rice farming. Using a mixed-methods approach that integrates Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment, SWOT analysis, and Structural Equation Modeling with data from 80 farmers selected through stratified random sampling, the research evaluates vulnerability components, identifies context-specific adaptive strategies, and tests causal relationships among key variables. The findings show that farmers face high vulnerability driven by strong exposure and sensitivity, while adaptive capacity remains limited. Although farmers possess experiential knowledge and social capital, technological gaps, low climate literacy, and financial constraints reduce adaptive readiness. The SEM results indicate that farmer characteristics significantly shape adaptation strategies, and both factors play a critical role in determining resilience. Overall, the study demonstrates that resilience emerges from the interaction between biophysical pressures and socioeconomic constraints, highlighting the importance of strengthening knowledge, technology access, and institutional support to enhance adaptive capacity and ensure the long-term sustainability of rice farming in vulnerable swamp ecosystems.