Gone with the Wind? An Assessment of Germany’s Onshore Wind Industry Amid Rising Chinese Competition

Abstract

This paper studies the relative competitiveness of Germany’s onshore wind industry compared to China’s and investigates whether an equally drastic value chain relocation, similar to Germany’s solar PV industry, is likely. Based on a comprehensive study of Germany’s domestic market, international competitiveness indicators like the world trade share (WTS), revealed comparative advantage (RCA), and relative export advantage (RXA), as well as an expert interview, we found that Germany’s industry has lost competitiveness in recent years, supply chain shifts to China are observable, and Chinese manufacturers are poised to enter the German market. However, the German onshore wind industry is still competitive, has a strong basis in its domestic market, and, with the right energy policy framework, it could brace the storm. The novelty of this study is threefold: it offers a comprehensive comparison of the German and Chinese wind industries, presents the first analysis of the 2017 EEG reform’s impact on Germany’s wind industry, and is the first study to trace the evolution of domestic and foreign market shares in Germany’s onshore wind market.