Escalating Dengue Burden and Emerging Hotspots in Bangladesh: A Decade of Trends and 2025 Forecast

Abstract

Background: Dengue, an emerging public health threat, has increased incidence, severity, and geographical spread in Bangladesh. In 2023, the dengue outbreak, 321,179 confirmed cases and 1,705 deaths were reported. This study aimed to project the potential scale and risk distribution of dengue outbreak in 2025 to guide pre-monsoon preparedness. Methods: Using artificial intelligence, we conducted a retrospective epidemiological analysis using national surveillance data from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), and WHO reports from 2014 to June 2025. The annual reported dengue case counts, deaths, serotype data, and seasonal patterns were included in the analysis. Projections for 2025 were developed by comparing early-season trends and historical burden across divisions. Results: Between 2014 and 2024, Bangladesh reported an exponential rise in dengue, with the CFR increasing from 0.16% (2019) to 0.57% (2024). In 2025, dengue cases will be expanded to all 64 districts, with new rural hotspots in Barishal, Chattogram, and Khulna divisions. DENV3 and DENV2 will be the dominant circulating serotypes. In 2025, dengue infection is projected to result in 2,82,000–7,91,000 cases and 1,240–4,58 deaths, with Dhaka, Barishal, and Chattogram divisions at the highest risk. Conclusion: Our study concluded an earlier onset, increasing severity, and expanding geographical reach of dengue cases in 2025. Pre-monsoon preparedness—including year-round vector control, clinical readiness, and climate-adaptive planning—is urgently needed to mitigate the anticipated 2025 outbreak.