An acceleration in hypertension-related mortality for middle-aged and older Americans, 1999-2016: An observational study

Abstract

Background Hypertension-related mortality has been increasing in recent years; however, limited information exists concerning rate, temporal, secular, and geographic trends in the United States. Methods and results Using CDC death certificate data spanning 1999–2016, we sought to delineate trends in deaths attributable to an underlying cause of hypertension using joinpoint regression and proportion testing. From 1999–2016, the hypertension-related mortality rate increased by 36.4% with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1.8% for individuals ≥ 35 years of age. Interestingly, there was a notable acceleration in the AAPC of hypertension mortality between 2011 and 2016 (2.7% per year). This increase was due to a significant uptick in mortality for individuals ≥ 55 years of age with the greatest AAPC occurring in individuals 55–64 (4.5%) and 65–74 (5.1%) years of age. Increased mortality and AAPC were pervasive throughout sex, ethnicity, and White and American Indian or Alaska Native race, but not Black or African American race. From 2011–2016, there were significant increases in AAPC for hypertension-related mortality with contributing causes of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, diabetes, obesity, and vascular dementia. Elevated mortality was observed for conditions with a contributing cause of hypertension that included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and all types of falls. Geographically, increases in AAPCs and mortality rates were observed for 25/51 States between 2011 and 2016. Conclusions Our results indicate hypertension-related mortality may have accelerated since 2011 for middle-aged and older Americans, which may create new challenges in care and healthcare planning.