Modelling maritime piracy: A spatial approach

Abstract

This paper presents a model to generate dynamic patterns of maritime piracy. Model details, outputs and calibration are illustrated. The model presented here is a tool to estimate the number of pirates and their area of action. The Gulf of Aden is considered as a case study, and data on pirate attacks, vessels routes and flows through the Gulf of Aden in the year 2010 are used to build the model. Agent-based modelling is employed to simulate pirate, vessel and naval forces behaviours.