Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China

Abstract

As the major energy bases, numerous coal cities in China are facing severe challenges in terms of resources and environment. In order to overcome the disadvantages of static evaluation, this study selected Huainan city, a typical coal city in China, as the case, and combined with the improved SD (system dynamics) model, analyzed its RECC (resource and environmental carrying capacity) systematically and dynamically. Firstly, a SD model of RECC system including resource-environment and society-economy subsystem was constructed. Then, the control parameters were determined objectively according to the analysis results of BP-DEMATAL model. Thirdly, we designed 18 simulation scenarios based on orthogonal test to dynamically predict the development trend of RECC in different conditions. Results show that: (1) From 2019 to 2030, the RECC of Huainan is generally on the rise. (2) In all simulation scenarios, test 12 is the most effective way of improving RECC. (3) The factors with the greatest influence on the simulation results are GDP, output value of secondary production, total expending on environmental protection, and coal production. This study provides a reference for the analysis method of RECC and the sustainable development of coal cities.